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The Influence of Economics and Politics on the Structure of World Trade and Investment Flows


Shiro Patrick Armstrong


Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Public Policy

Peter Drysdale


Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Economics and Government

October 6, 2009

East Asia Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 61

Abstract:     
The Asia Pacific region, and especially East Asia, has experienced rapid economic integration without the ‘hard politics’ of legally binding economic and political treaties, unlike Europe where integration has been institution‐led. The ‘soft politics’ and market‐led integration in East Asia set against a background of political tensions and rivalries in key relationships in the region. The paper measures trade and investment performance in the world economy. This allows comparison of bilateral and regional trade and investment flows. A measure of the effect of political distance on both trade and investment flows is also defined. The growth of China‐Japan trade and investment, despite political distance between the two countries is discussed to highlight and elaborate on key findings. The analysis leads to five conclusions. Multilateral institutions are important in reducing economic and political distance between trading partners. While political relations do affect economic relations, their effect is not important across the vast majority of trading relationships. The important effects of political relations on economic relations come in today’s world via international investment rather than through international trade. East Asian economies are leading trade and economic integration, measured in terms of their trade and investment performance and their impact on global trade and investment frontiers. Finally, of all the major regional groupings, APEC and ASEAN stand out as arrangements in which there has been no trade diversion, unlike the other formal regional groupings such as NAFTA and the EU in which trade diversion is measurable. The paper finds an ‘APEC effect,’ explains how economics can dominate politics in international economic relations and recommends priority to strengthening regional and international investment regimes to help ameliorate the likely effects of politics on economic integration in the future.

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Date posted: February 23, 2011  

Suggested Citation

Armstrong, Shiro Patrick and Drysdale, Peter, The Influence of Economics and Politics on the Structure of World Trade and Investment Flows (October 6, 2009). East Asia Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 61. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1767687 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1767687

Contact Information

Shiro Patrick Armstrong (Contact Author)
Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Public Policy ( email )
ANU College of Asia and the Pacific
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200
Australia
HOME PAGE: http://www.crawford.anu.edu.au/staff/sarmstrong.php

Peter Drysdale
Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Economics and Government ( email )
Crawford Building
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200
Australia
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