Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1774823
 
 

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Grazing the Commons: Global Carbon Emissions Forever?


Bertrand Melenberg


Tilburg University - Center for Economic Research (CentER)

Herman R.J. Vollebergh


Tilburg Sustainability Centre; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Tilburg University - Center and Faculty of Economics and Business Administration; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Department of Economics

Elbert Dijkgraaf


Erasmus University Rotterdam, SEOR-ECRi; Tinbergen Institute

March 2, 2011

CentER Discussion Paper No. 2011-020

Abstract:     
This paper presents the results from our investigation of the per-capita, long-term relation between carbon dioxide emissions and gross domestic product (GDP) for the world, obtained with the use of a new, flexible estimator. Consistent with simple economic growth models, we find that regional, population-weighted per-capita emissions systematically increase with income (scale effect) and usually decline over time (composition and technology effect). Both our in-sample results and out-of-sample scenarios indicate that this negative time effect is unlikely to compensate for the upward-income effect at a global level, in the near future. In particular, even if China's specialization in carbon-intensive industrial sectors would come to a halt, recent trends outside China make a reversal of the overall global trend very unlikely.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 50

Keywords: CO2 Emissions, Environmental Kuznets Curve, Panel Data, (Semi) Parametric Estimation

JEL Classification: C33, O50, Q40

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Date posted: March 3, 2011 ; Last revised: December 2, 2013

Suggested Citation

Melenberg, Bertrand and Vollebergh, Herman R.J. and Dijkgraaf, Elbert, Grazing the Commons: Global Carbon Emissions Forever? (March 2, 2011). CentER Discussion Paper No. 2011-020. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1774823 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1774823

Contact Information

Bertrand Melenberg (Contact Author)
Tilburg University - Center for Economic Research (CentER) ( email )
P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands
+31 13 466 2730 (Phone)
Herman R.J. Vollebergh
Tilburg Sustainability Centre ( email )
P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, North Brabant 5000 LE
Netherlands
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency ( email )
Antonie van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9
Bilthoven, 3721 MA
Netherlands
+31302742626 (Phone)
HOME PAGE: http://people.few.eur.nl/vollebergh/
Tilburg University - Center and Faculty of Economics and Business Administration ( email )
P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands
Erasmus University Rotterdam - Department of Economics ( email )
P.O. Box 1738
3000 DR Rotterdam
Netherlands
(+31)010-4081498 (Phone)
(+31)010-2120551 (Fax)
Elbert Dijkgraaf
Erasmus University Rotterdam, SEOR-ECRi ( email )
P.O. Box 1738
H 7-34
Rotterdam, 3000 DR
Netherlands
+31 10 4082590 (Phone)
+31 10 4089650 (Fax)
HOME PAGE: http://www.ecri.nl
Tinbergen Institute ( email )
Burg. Oudlaan 50
Rotterdam, 3062 PA
Netherlands
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