Innovation, Growth, and Asset Prices

Abstract:     
Asset prices reflect anticipations of future growth. We examine the asset pricing implications of a production economy whose long-term growth prospects are endogenously determined by innovation and R\&D. In equilibrium, R\&D endogenously drives a small, persistent component in productivity which generates long-run uncertainty about economic growth. With recursive preferences, households fear that persistent slowdowns in economic growth are accompanied by low asset valuations and command high risk premia in asset markets. Empirically, we find substantial evidence for innovation-driven low-frequency movements in aggregate growth rates and asset market valuations. In short, equilibrium growth is risky.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 48

Keywords: Endogenous growth, asset pricing, innovation, R&D, productivity, low-frequency cycles, business cycle propagation, recursive preferences

working papers series