When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China
University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
Asian Development Bank - Economic Research
Korea University; Claremont Mckenna College
NBER Working Paper No. w16919
Using international data starting in 1957, we construct a sample of cases where fast-growing economies slow down. The evidence suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly, in the sense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2 percentage points, when their per capita incomes reach around $17,000 US in year-2005 constant international prices, a level that China should achieve by or soon after 2015. Among our more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likely in countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates.
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Number of Pages in PDF File: 50working papers series
Date posted: April 4, 2011
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