Measurement Error and the Hot Hand

Stone, Daniel F.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.1805843

Abstract

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Measurement Error and the Hot Hand

Daniel F. Stone

Bowdoin College - Department of Economics

February 1, 2012

The American Statistician, 66(1), 2012

Abstract:
This paper shows the ﬁrst autocorrelation of basketball shot results is a highly biased and inconsistent estimator of the ﬁrst autocorrelation of the ex ante probabilities the shots are made. Shot result autocorrelation is close to zero even when shot probability autocorrelation is close to one. The bias is caused by what is equivalent to a severe measurement error problem. The results imply that the widespread belief among players and fans in the hot hand is not necessarily a cognitive fallacy.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 17

Keywords: hot hand, overinference, measurement error, basketball

JEL Classification: D3, D83, L83

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Date posted: April 10, 2011 ; Last revised: August 27, 2012

Suggested Citation

Stone, Daniel F., Measurement Error and the Hot Hand (February 1, 2012). The American Statistician, 66(1), 2012. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1805843 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1805843

Contact Information

Daniel F. Stone (Contact Author)

Bowdoin College - Department of Economics ( email )

Brunswick, ME 04011
United States
6463387833 (Phone)