FDI, Exports, and GDP in East and Southeast Asia - Panel Data versus Time-Series Causality Analyses

Abstract:     
Using time-series and panel data from 1986 to 2004, this paper examines the Granger causality relations between GDP, exports, and FDI among China, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand, the eight rapidly developing East and Southeast Asian economies. After reviewing the current literature and testing the properties of individual time-series data, we estimate the VAR of the three variables to find various Granger causal relations for each of the eight economies. We found each country has different causality relations and does not yield general rules. We then construct the panel data of the three variables for the eight economies as a group and then use the fixed effects and random effects approaches to estimate the panel data VAR equations for Granger causality tests. The panel data causality results reveal that FDI has unidirectional effects on GDP directly and also indirectly through exports, and there also exists bidirectional causality between exports and GDP for the group. Our results indicate that the panel data causality analysis has superior results over the time-series causality analysis.

Economic and policy implications of our analyses are then explored in the conclusions.

Keywords: FDI and exports and GDP, Panel data causality analysis, Granger causality analysis, Economic development, East and Southeast Asia

JEL Classification: C33, C32, F43, F21, O11

Accepted Paper Series