Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1846814
 
 

Citations



 


 



Bayesian Herders: Updating of Rainfall Beliefs in Response to External Climate Forecasts


Travis J. Lybbert


University of California, Davis - Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics

Christopher B. Barrett


Cornell University - Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics & Management

John G. McPeak


Syracuse University - Department of Economics

Winnie Luseno


RTI International

April 18, 2006

World Development, Vol. 35, No. 3, 2007

Abstract:     
Temporal climate risk weighs heavily on many of the world’s poor. Model-based climate forecasts could benefit such populations, provided recipients use forecast information to update climate expectations. We test whether pastoralists in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya update their expectations in response to forecast information. The minority of herders who received these climate forecasts updated their expectations for below normal rainfall, but not for above normal rainfall. This revealed preoccupation with downside risk highlights the potential value of better climate forecasts in averting drought-related losses, but realizing any welfare gains requires that recipients strategically react to these updated expectations.

Keywords: information, risk, early warning systems, Africa, Kenya, Ethiopia

JEL Classification: D84, O12, O13, Q16

Accepted Paper Series





Not Available For Download

Date posted: May 24, 2011  

Suggested Citation

Lybbert , Travis J. and Barrett, Christopher B. and McPeak, John G. and Luseno, Winnie, Bayesian Herders: Updating of Rainfall Beliefs in Response to External Climate Forecasts (April 18, 2006). World Development, Vol. 35, No. 3, 2007. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1846814

Contact Information

Travis J. Lybbert
University of California, Davis - Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics ( email )
One Shields Avenue
Davis, CA 95616
United States
Christopher B. Barrett (Contact Author)
Cornell University - Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics & Management ( email )
315 Warren Hall
Ithaca, NY 14853-7801
United States
607-255-4489 (Phone)
607-255-9984 (Fax)
HOME PAGE: http://aem.cornell.edu/faculty_sites/cbb2/
John G. McPeak
Syracuse University - Department of Economics ( email )
Syracuse, NY 13244-1020
United States
Winnie Luseno
RTI International ( email )
3040 Cornwallis Road
PO Box 12194
RTP, NC 27709-2194
United States
9195416000 (Phone)
9194855555 (Fax)
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