Predicting Older Age Mortality Trends
Dora L. Costa
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Texas A&M University - George Bush School of Government and Public Service
May 23, 2004
Journal of the European Economic Association, April-May 2004
Improving early prenatal and postnatal conditions account for at least 16 to 17 percent of the decline in ten year mortality rates of 60-79 year olds between 1900 and 1960-80. Historical trends in early prenatal and postnatal conditions imply that while the baby-boom cohort may be particularly long-lived compared to past cohorts, mortality rates may not fall as steeply for the cohorts born after 1955 as for earlier cohorts.
Keywords: cohort, mortality, oldest old, Barker
JEL Classification: J15, N31Accepted Paper Series
Date posted: May 26, 2011
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