Health Employment, Medical Spending, and Long Term Health Reform
Mark V. Pauly
University of Pennsylvania - Health Care Systems Department; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School
August 11, 2011
Presented at CESifo Area Conference on Public Sector Economics, April 2011
CESifo Working Paper Series No. 3481
This paper explores the relationships between the growth in the medical workforce in an aging society and employment in other sectors of the economy, based on data from the United States since 1985. Employment in medical services grew, but did not displace employment in other sectors uniformly. Instead, regression analysis shows that medical workforce growth produced contemporaneous reductions in relative employment in the manufacturing, construction, and information sectors, while being associated with growth in other services and public administration. Import penetration and productivity growth mattered, but much of the displacement remains even after controlling for these factors.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 32
JEL Classification: I100
Date posted: June 8, 2011
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