Fiscal Policies and Asset Prices

Abstract:     
The surge in public debt triggered by the financial crisis has raised uncertainty about future tax pressure and economic activity. We examine the asset pricing effects of fiscal policies in a production-based general equilibrium model in which taxation affects corporate decisions by: i) distorting profits and investment; ii) reducing the cost of debt through a tax shield; and iii) depressing productivity growth. In settings with recursive preferences, these three tax-based channels generate sizable risk premia making tax uncertainty a first order concern. We document further that corporate tax smoothing can substantially alter the effects of public expenditure shocks.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 47

Keywords: cost of equity, corporate tax uncertainty, tax smoothing

JEL Classification: G12, E62

Accepted Paper Series