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Tourism in the MED 11 Countries


Robert Lanquar


CASE - Center for Social and Economic Research

July 6, 2011

CASE Network Report No. 98

Abstract:     
For the last two decades, MED11 countries (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestinian Autonomy, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey) have recorded the highest growth rate in inbound world tourism. In the same time, domestic tourism in these countries was growing very fast. MED 11 tourism performances have been astonishing in light of the security risks, natural disasters, oil prices rises and economic uncertainties of the region. The last financial crisis had no severe consequences on this development, which confirmed the resilience of tourism and the huge potential of the MED 11 countries in this sector. This trend was abruptly halted in early 2011 during the Arab Spring, but could resume when the situation stabilizes. This paper questions whether this trend will continue in the period up to 2030 and, for that, provides four different possible scenarios for the development of the tourism sector in MED11 for 2030: (i) reference scenario, (ii) common sustainable development scenario, (iii) polarized (regional) development scenario and (iv) failed development - decline and conflict – scenario. In all cases, international and domestic tourism arrivals will grow. However, security and adjustment to climate change remain the main factors that will strongly influence the development of the tourism sector in MED11 countries.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 61

Keywords: Mediterranean, domestic tourism, international tourism, security, climate change, tourism indicators, tourism's economic contribution, tourism competitiveness, tourism prospective, tourism scenarios

JEL Classification: D12, D60, E27, F47, H54, O53, O55

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Date posted: July 6, 2011  

Suggested Citation

Lanquar, Robert, Tourism in the MED 11 Countries (July 6, 2011). CASE Network Report No. 98. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1879849 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1879849

Contact Information

Robert Lanquar (Contact Author)
CASE - Center for Social and Economic Research ( email )
Sienkiewicza 12
Warsaw, 00-010
Poland
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