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Tranching, CDS and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation Can Cause Bubbles and Crashes


Ana Fostel


George Washington University

John Geanakoplos


Yale University - Cowles Foundation

July 23, 2011

Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1809

Abstract:     
We show how the timing of financial innovation might have contributed to the mortgage boom and then to the bust of 2007-2009. We study the effect of leverage, tranching, securitization and CDS on asset prices in a general equilibrium model with collateral. We show why tranching and leverage tend to raise asset prices and why CDS tend to lower them. This may seem puzzling, since it implies that creating a derivative tranche in the securitization whose payoffs are identical to the CDS will raise the underlying asset price while the CDS outside the securitization lowers it. The resolution of the puzzle is that the CDS lowers the value of the underlying asset since it is equivalent to tranching cash.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 48

Keywords: Financial innovation, Endogenous leverage, Collateral equilibrium, CDS, Tranching and Asset prices

JEL Classification: D52, D53, E44, G01, G10, G12

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Date posted: July 16, 2011 ; Last revised: July 26, 2011

Suggested Citation

Fostel, Ana and Geanakoplos, John, Tranching, CDS and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation Can Cause Bubbles and Crashes (July 23, 2011). Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 1809. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1886466 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1886466

Contact Information

Ana Fostel
George Washington University ( email )
2115 G Street, NW, Suite 370
Washington, DC 20052
United States
HOME PAGE: http://home.gwu.edu/~afostel/
John Geanakoplos (Contact Author)
Yale University - Cowles Foundation ( email )
Box 208281
New Haven, CT 06520-8281
United States
203-432-3397 (Phone)
203-432-6167 (Fax)
HOME PAGE: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/au/d_gean.htm
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