Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1889424
 


 



Quantitative and Empirical Demonstration of the Matthew Effect in a Study of Career Longevity


Alexander M. Petersen


IMT Lucca Institute for Advanced Studies; Boston University

Woo-Sung Jung


Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH)

Jae-Suk Yang


Columbia University - Columbia Business School

H. Eugene Stanley


Boston University - Center for Polymer Studies

January 4, 2011

National Academy of Science USA, Vol. 108, pp. 18-23, 2011

Abstract:     
The Matthew effect refers to the adage written some two-thousand years ago in the Gospel of St. Matthew: “For to all those who have, more will be given.” Even two millennia later, this idiom is used by sociologists to qualitatively describe the dynamics of individual progress and the interplay between status and reward. Quantitative studies of professional careers are traditionally limited by the difficulty in measuring progress and the lack of data on individual careers. However, in some professions, there are well-defined metrics that quantify career longevity, success, and prowess, which together contribute to the overall success rating for an individual employee. Here we demonstrate testable evidence of the age-old Matthew “rich get richer” effect, wherein the longevity and past success of an individual lead to a cumulative advantage in further developing his or her career. We develop an exactly solvable stochastic career progress model that quantitatively incorporates the Matthew effect and validate our model predictions for several competitive professions. We test our model on the careers of 400,000 scientists using data from six high-impact journals and further confirm our findings by testing the model on the careers of more than 20,000 athletes in four sports leagues. Our model highlights the importance of early career development, showing that many careers are stunted by the relative disadvantage associated with inexperience.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 13

Keywords: Matthew Effect, Poisson Process, career longevity, production, hazard rate

JEL Classification: D39, J24, J44, L83

Accepted Paper Series


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Date posted: July 21, 2011  

Suggested Citation

Petersen, Alexander M. and Jung, Woo-Sung and Yang, Jae-Suk and Stanley, H. Eugene, Quantitative and Empirical Demonstration of the Matthew Effect in a Study of Career Longevity (January 4, 2011). National Academy of Science USA, Vol. 108, pp. 18-23, 2011 . Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1889424

Contact Information

Alexander M. Petersen (Contact Author)
IMT Lucca Institute for Advanced Studies ( email )
Complesso San Micheletto
Lucca, 55100
Italy
HOME PAGE: http://www.imtlucca.it/whos_at_imt/personal_page.php?n=Alexander+Petersen&p=7084
Boston University ( email )
595 Commonwealth Avenue
Boston, MA 02215
United States
HOME PAGE: http://physics.bu.edu/~amp17/
Woo-Sung Jung
Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH) ( email )
Pohang
Korea
Jae-Suk Yang
Columbia University - Columbia Business School ( email )
3022 Broadway
New York, NY New York 10027
United States
H. Eugene Stanley
Boston University - Center for Polymer Studies ( email )
Boston, MA 02215
United States
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