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Austerity and Anarchy: Budget Cuts and Social Unrest in Europe, 1919-2008Jacopo PonticelliUniversitat Pompeu Fabra - Department of Economics and Business Hans-Joachim VothUniversitat Pompeu Fabra - Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) December 2011 Abstract: Does fiscal consolidation lead to social unrest? Using cross-country evidence for the period 1919 to 2008, we examine the extent to which societies become unstable after budget cuts. The results show a clear correlation between fiscal retrenchment and instability. We test if the relationship simply reflects economic downturns, and conclude that this is not the case. While autocracies and democracies show a broadly similar responses to budget cuts, countries with more constraints on the executive are less likely to see unrest after austerity measures. Growing media penetration does not strengthen the effect of cut-backs on the level of unrest.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 41 Keywords: demonstrations, Europe, government deficits, instability, public expenditure, riots, unrest JEL Classification: H40, H50, H60, N14 working papers seriesDate posted: August 1, 2011 ; Last revised: December 6, 2011Suggested CitationContact Information
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