Power Sharing Provisions and Long-Term Success of Mediation in Internal Conflicts

Abstract:     
Past studies regarding the success of conflict mediation efforts in civil wars have demonstrated that mediation is a useful conflict mediation mechanism because it facilitates the conclusion of peace agreements. However, even though mediation takes place and peace agreements are signed, the conditions for a durable peace do not always take hold. There have been fewer studies investigating long-term mediation success and this article tries to fill this gap. To this end, we synthesize the mediation literature with recent studies on the durability of peace agreements. In line with research on the quality of agreements, we test the impact of power-sharing arrangements on the chance of long-term mediation success using the new Civil War Mediation (CWM) as well as the UCDP Peace Agreement datasets. Probit regression models provide strong support for the impact of power sharing provisions on long-term mediation success. However, third-party external guarantees in peace agreements, which are important for the implementation of peace agreements, do not guarantee enduring peace. We also find that factors that affect the probability of signing of a peace agreement, such as type of mediator or mediation strategy, do not affect whether the successfully mediated peace agreement will bring lasting peace after the conclusion of an agreement. Additionally, the type of dispute (territorial vs. governmental) seem not to play an important role in affecting the durability of peace while war duration and the breaking of peace agreement negatively affects the chances the peace will last.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 27

Keywords: power sharing, mediation, peace agreement, civil war, durability of peace

working papers series