Election Forecasting: Theory, Practice, Japan
Michael S. Lewis-Beck
University of Iowa - Department of Political Science
Hunter College & The Graduate Center, CUNY
APSA 2011 Annual Meeting Paper
We explore the principles of election forecasting and the core theory of elections, as applied to a pure test case – that of Japan. As shall be seen, in practice, systematic trial-and-error stands as an integral part of the research process. In this paper, we look at principles of forecasting, then substantive theory. We apply the lessons of theory and practice to the unexplored Japanese case. We discover that Japanese elections are amenable to forecasting. Finally, we observe the continuing cross-democracy generalizability of the core political economy model, a model that has bound together so much election forecasting work.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 24
Keywords: election forecasting, forecasting, Japanese elections, prime ministerial approval
JEL Classification: C22working papers series
Date posted: August 1, 2011 ; Last revised: August 14, 2011
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