Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1908566
 
 

References (78)



 
 

Citations (19)



 
 

Footnotes (55)



 


 



Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First


Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas


University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Maurice Obstfeld


University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

August 2011

CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8518

Abstract:     
A key precursor of twentieth-century financial crises in emerging and advanced economies alike was the rapid buildup of leverage. Those emerging economies that avoided leverage booms during the 2000s also were most likely to avoid the worst effects of the twenty-first century’s first global crisis. A discrete-choice panel analysis using 1973-2010 data suggests that domestic credit expansion and real currency appreciation have been the most robust and significant predictors of financial crises, regardless of whether a country is emerging or advanced. For emerging economies, however, higher foreign exchange reserves predict a sharply reduced probability of a subsequent crisis.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 72

Keywords: banking crisis, Credit boom, currency crisis, emerging markets, leverage, sovereign default

JEL Classification: E44, F32, F34, G15, G21, N10

working papers series


Date posted: August 12, 2011  

Suggested Citation

Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier and Obstfeld, Maurice, Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First (August 2011). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8518. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1908566

Contact Information

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (Contact Author)
University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics ( email )
549 Evans Hall #3880
Berkeley, CA 94720-3880
United States
HOME PAGE: http://socrates.berkeley.edu/~pog/
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
77 Bastwick Street
London, EC1V 3PZ
United Kingdom
Maurice Obstfeld
University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics ( email )
549 Evans Hall #3880
Berkeley, CA 94720-3880
United States
510-643-9646 (Phone)
510-642-6615 (Fax)
HOME PAGE: http://emlab.berkeley.edu/users/obstfeld/
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
77 Bastwick Street
London, EC1V 3PZ
United Kingdom
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Feedback to SSRN


Paper statistics
Abstract Views: 256
Downloads: 6
References:  78
Citations:  19
Footnotes:  55

© 2014 Social Science Electronic Publishing, Inc. All Rights Reserved.  FAQ   Terms of Use   Privacy Policy   Copyright   Contact Us
This page was processed by apollo3 in 0.781 seconds