Potential Growth of the World Economy
Dale W. Jorgenson
Harvard University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Khuong M. Vu
Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy
August 3, 2010
Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 32, No. 5, 2010
Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy Research Paper No. PP10-15
This paper introduces a new framework for projecting potential growth of the world economy, emphasizing the contribution of information technology. We first analyze the sources of economic growth for the world economy, seven regions, and fourteen major economies during four periods- 1989–1995, 1995–2000, 2000–2004, and 2004–2008. The contribution of investment in information technology has increased in all regions, but especially in industrialized economies and Developing Asia. We then project the potential growth rates of labor productivity and GDP for 122 economies over the ten-year period 2009–2019. Relative to historical growth for 1989–2008, we project lower growth rates for productivity and GDP.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 32
Keywords: growth, information technology, investment, productivity
JEL Classification: O47Accepted Paper Series
Date posted: August 19, 2011 ; Last revised: November 16, 2011
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