Mapping the State of Financial Stability
Åbo Akademi University; Åbo Akademi University - Turku Centre for Computer Science (TUCS)
Tuomas A. Peltonen
European Central Bank (ECB)
July 27, 2011
BOFIT Discussion Paper No. 18/2011
The paper uses the Self-Organizing Map for mapping the state of financial stability and visualizing the sources of systemic risks on a two-dimensional plane as well as for predicting systemic financial crises. The Self-Organizing Financial Stability Map (SOFSM) enables a two-dimensional representation of a multidimensional financial stability space and thus allows disentangling the individual sources impacting on systemic risks. The SOFSM can be used to monitor macro-financial vulnerabilities by locating a country in the financial stability cycle: being it either in the pre-crisis, crisis, post-crisis or tranquil state. In addition, the SOFSM performs better than or equally well as a logit model in classifying in-sample data and predicting out-of-sample the global financial crisis that started in 2007. Model robustness is tested by varying the thresholds of the models, the policymaker’s preferences, and the forecasting horizon.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 44
Keywords: systemic financial crisis, systemic risk, self-organizing maps, visualisation, prediction, macroprudential supervision
JEL Classification: E44, E58, F01, F37, G01working papers series
Date posted: August 22, 2011
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