Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1919450
 
 

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The Effect of Interventions to Reduce Fertility on Economic Growth


Quamrul Ashraf


Williams College - Department of Economics

David N. Weil


Brown University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Joshua Wilde


University of South Florida

August 2011

NBER Working Paper No. w17377

Abstract:     
We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics and natural resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of a change in fertility from the UN medium-variant to the UN low-variant projection, using Nigerian vital rates as a baseline. For a base case set of parameters, we find that such a change would raise output per capita by 5.6 percent at a horizon of 20 years, and by 11.9 percent at a horizon of 50 years.

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Date posted: August 30, 2011  

Suggested Citation

Ashraf, Quamrul and Weil, David N. and Wilde, Joshua, The Effect of Interventions to Reduce Fertility on Economic Growth (August 2011). NBER Working Paper No. w17377. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1919450

Contact Information

Quamrul Ashraf (Contact Author)
Williams College - Department of Economics ( email )
Schapiro Hall
24 Hopkins Hall Drive
Williamstown, MA 01267
United States
(413) 597-2476 (Phone)
(413) 597-4045 (Fax)
HOME PAGE: http://econ.williams.edu/people/qha1
David Nathan Weil
Brown University - Department of Economics ( email )
Box B
Providence, RI 02912
United States
401-863-1754 (Phone)
401-863-1970 (Fax)
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Joshua Wilde
University of South Florida ( email )
Tampa, FL 33620
United States
813-974-2076 (Phone)
813-974-6510 (Fax)
HOME PAGE: http://faculty.cas.usf.edu/jkwilde/
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