Private Information Arrival, Trading Activity, and Price Formation: Evidence from Nonpublic Merger Negotiations
Simon School of Business, University of Rochester
University of Arizona - Department of Finance
February 3, 2013
We provide evidence on how stock prices and trading activity respond to the arrival of private information about firm value using the dates of material nonpublic merger negotiations to proxy for private information arrival. Target firm returns are 0.41% higher over two days following each nonpublic negotiation event. Trading volume, order imbalance, and trade size also spike in this window. Larger price reactions following negotiation events preempt deal announcement returns. The price response following negotiation events is explained by proxies for the expected profits and price impact of informed trading, prior press speculation, institutional ownership, and contemporaneous trading activity signals.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 55
Keywords: Mergers, acquisitions, private information, insider trading, price formation, negotiations
JEL Classification: G12, G14, G18, G34, K22working papers series
Date posted: November 15, 2011 ; Last revised: February 6, 2013
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