Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1941792
 
 

References (4)



 


 



The Problem is Beyond Psychology: The Real World is More Random than Regression Analyses


Nassim Nicholas Taleb


NYU-Tandon School of Engineering; New England Complex Systems Institute

Daniel G. Goldstein


Microsoft Research New York City; London Business School

October 10, 2011

International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming

Abstract:     
Where the problem is not expert underestimation of randomness, but more: the tools themselves used in regression analyses and similar methods underestimate fat tails, hence the randomness in the data. We should avoid imparting psychological explanations to errors in the use of statistical methods.

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Date posted: October 10, 2011  

Suggested Citation

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas and Goldstein, Daniel G., The Problem is Beyond Psychology: The Real World is More Random than Regression Analyses (October 10, 2011). International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1941792

Contact Information

Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Contact Author)
NYU-Tandon School of Engineering ( email )
Bobst Library, E-resource Acquisitions
20 Cooper Square 3rd Floor
New York, NY 10003-711
United States
New England Complex Systems Institute ( email )
24 Mt. Auburn St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Daniel G. Goldstein
Microsoft Research New York City ( email )
641 Avenue of Americas
New York, NY 10011
United States
London Business School ( email )
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London, London NW1 4SA
United Kingdom
+44 0 20 7000 8611 (Phone)
+44 0 20 7000 8601 (Fax)
HOME PAGE: http://www.dangoldstein.com
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