Criminal Rehabilitation, Incapacitation, and Aging
December 1, 2011
In April 1993, Georgia instituted new parole guidelines that led to longer prison terms for parole-eligible offenders. This paper shows that an extra year of prison reduces the three-year recidivism rate by 6 percentage points (14 percent); and the beneﬁts of preventing this crime are likely outweighed by the costs of this additional incarceration.
I develop a new econometric framework to jointly estimate the effects of rehabilitation, incapacitation, and aging in reducing crime. Estimates of incapacitation effects using existing methodologies are biased upward by at least a factor of two because they focus on a short time horizon.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 39
JEL Classification: J0, K14
Date posted: February 23, 2012 ; Last revised: March 8, 2012
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