Forecasting with Option-Implied Information
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Volume 2, G. Elliott and A. Timmermann (eds.)
72 Pages Posted: 8 Dec 2011 Last revised: 11 Jul 2012
Date Written: July 10, 2012
Abstract
This chapter surveys the methods available for extracting information from option prices that can be used in forecasting. We consider option-implied volatilities, skewness, kurtosis, and densities. More generally, we discuss how any forecasting object which is a twice differentiable function of the future realization of the underlying risky asset price can utilize option-implied information in a well-defined manner. Going beyond the univariate option-implied density, we also consider results on option-implied covariance, correlation and beta forecasting, as well as the use of option-implied information in cross-sectional forecasting of equity returns. We discuss how option-implied information can be adjusted for risk premia to remove biases in forecasting regressions.
Keywords: Volatility, skewness, kurtosis, density forecasting, risk-neutral
JEL Classification: G13, G17, C53
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions
By Darrell Duffie, Jun Pan, ...
-
Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions
By Darrell Duffie, Jun Pan, ...
-
The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns
By Michael S. Johannes, Bjorn Eraker, ...
-
Implied Volatility Functions: Empirical Tests
By Bernard Dumas, Jeff Fleming, ...
-
Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns
-
Recovering Probabilities and Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns
-
Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options
By Gurdip Bakshi, Nikunj Kapadia, ...
-
Stock Return Characteristics, Skew Laws, and the Differential Pricing of Individual Equity Options
By Nikunj Kapadia, Gurdip Bakshi, ...
-
Nonparametric Estimation of State-Price Densities Implicit in Financial Asset Prices
By Yacine Ait-sahalia and Andrew W. Lo