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Commodity Strategies Based on Momentum, Term Structure and Idiosyncratic Volatility


Ana-Maria Fuertes


Cass Business School, City University London

Joelle Miffre


EDHEC Business School

Adrián Fernández-Pérez


University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria - Department of Quantitative Methods in Economics

December 10, 2011


Abstract:     
This article demonstrates that momentum, term structure and idiosyncratic volatility signals in commodity futures markets are not overlapping which motivates the design of a new triple-screen strategy. Over the period between January 1985 and August 2011, systematically buying contracts with high past performance, high roll-yield and low idiosyncratic volatility, while shorting contracts with poor past performance, low roll-yields and high idiosyncratic volatility generates an average Sharpe ratio that is five times that of the S&P-GSCI. The triple-screen strategy dominates each of the individual strategies and its risk-adjusted performance cannot be attributed to overreaction, liquidity risk or neglecting transaction costs.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 34

Keywords: commodity futures, momentum, term structure, idiosyncratic volatility

JEL Classification: G13, G14

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Date posted: December 14, 2011 ; Last revised: February 20, 2013

Suggested Citation

Fuertes, Ana-Maria, Miffre, Joelle and Fernández-Pérez, Adrián, Commodity Strategies Based on Momentum, Term Structure and Idiosyncratic Volatility (December 10, 2011). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1971917 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1971917

Contact Information

Ana-Maria Fuertes
Cass Business School, City University London ( email )
Faculty of Finance
106 Bunhill Row
London, EC1Y 8TZ
United Kingdom
+44 207 477 0186 (Phone)
+44 207 477 8881 (Fax)
HOME PAGE: http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/experts/A.fuertes/
Joelle Miffre (Contact Author)
EDHEC Business School ( email )
58 rue du Port
Lille, 59046
France
Adrián Fernández-Pérez
University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria - Department of Quantitative Methods in Economics ( email )
Campus de Tafira
35017 Las Palmas
Spain
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