The Revenue Demands of Public Employee Pension Promises
Simon Business School, University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Joshua D. Rauh
Stanford Graduate School of Business; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
September 16, 2012
We calculate increases in contributions required to achieve full funding of state and local pension systems in the U.S. over 30 years. Without policy changes, contributions would have to increase by 2.5 times, reaching 14.1% of the total own-revenue generated by state and local governments. This represents a tax increase of $1,385 per household per year, around half of which goes to pay down legacy liabilities while half funds the cost of new promises. We examine sensitivity to asset return assumptions, wage correlations, the treatment of workers not currently in Social Security, and endogenous geographical shifts in the tax base.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 63
Keywords: pensions, state and local government, public finance
JEL Classification: H74, H70, H31, E62, H55
Date posted: December 16, 2011 ; Last revised: October 16, 2012
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