Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1974076
 
 

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The Gloomy Scenario of Italy's Default


Diego Valiante


Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)

December 16, 2011

ECMI Commentary, No. 31, December 2011

Abstract:     
What will happen if Italy is not able to implement structural reforms and if international institutions, such as the EFSF and the IMF, do not intervene with sufficient resources to prevent Europe’s second-largest economy from defaulting on its debt? The potential costs of such a scenario are, as of today, unquantifiable. But what we can anticipate is that the Italian economic system would certainly embark on a perverse path that would follow three phases: liquidity crisis and insolvency; deflationary pressures; and finally inflationary pressures and economic and political instability.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 5

Keywords: Eurozone debt crisis, sovereign default, public finance

JEL Classification: E60, E61, E62, F30, H60, H63

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Date posted: December 18, 2011  

Suggested Citation

Valiante, Diego, The Gloomy Scenario of Italy's Default (December 16, 2011). ECMI Commentary, No. 31, December 2011. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1974076

Contact Information

Diego Valiante (Contact Author)
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) ( email )
1 Place du Congres, 1000
Brussels, 1000
Belgium
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