Why an Arab Spring May Never Arrive: Political Culture and Stability in the Middle East and North Africa’s Monarchies

Abstract:     
2011 ushered in a new, more uncertain future in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Ben Ali, who ruled Tunisia since 1987, Mubarak, who ruled Egypt since 1981, and Gaddafi, who ruled Libya since 1969, were forced from power. In Bahrain, Iran, and Syria, security forces have cracked down on popular protests. Virtually every country in the region has experienced some protests and calls for reform. This paper gains purchase on the variation in political turmoil in the MENA during the Arab Spring. The region’s monarchies have been largely spared of violence while the “republics” have not. This paper shows that this has also been the case historically. It provides a theory of political culture that explains why. It also illustrates the historical evolution of monarchical rule in the MENA. A case study of the Qatari monarchy puts flesh on the theory.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 37

Keywords: Arab Spring, Revolution, Monarchy, Tribalism, Qatar

working papers series