Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1983081
 
 

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The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns


Ralph S. J. Koijen


London Business School - Department of Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Hanno N. Lustig


UCLA - Anderson School of Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh


New York University Stern School of Business, Department of Finance; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

December 15, 2014

NYU Working Paper No. 2451/31423

Abstract:     
Low realizations of the bond factors, typically at the onset of recessions, coincide with low value-minus-growth returns, low future dividend growth on value-minus-growth, and low future economic growth. This evidence supports the view that the business cycle is a priced state variable in stock markets. Because of this new nexus between stock and bond markets, a parsimonious three-factor model can be used to jointly price the book-to-market stock and maturity-sorted bond portfolios and reproduce the time-series variation in expected bond returns. Structural dynamic asset pricing models need to include a central role for the business cycle as a priced state variable to be quantitatively consistent with the observed value, equity, and bond risk premia.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 64

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Date posted: January 13, 2012 ; Last revised: December 16, 2014

Suggested Citation

Koijen, Ralph S. J. and Lustig, Hanno N. and Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, The Cross-Section and Time-Series of Stock and Bond Returns (December 15, 2014). NYU Working Paper No. 2451/31423. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1983081

Contact Information

Ralph S. J. Koijen
London Business School - Department of Finance ( email )
Sussex Place
Regent's Park
London NW1 4SA
United Kingdom
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Hanno N. Lustig
UCLA - Anderson School of Management ( email )
405 Hilgard Avenue
Box 951361
Los Angeles, CA 90095
United States
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh (Contact Author)
New York University Stern School of Business, Department of Finance ( email )
44 West 4th Street
Suite 9-190
New York, NY 10012-1126
United States
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
77 Bastwick Street
London, EC1V 3PZ
United Kingdom
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References:  53
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