Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1987160
 


 



Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections: A Socionomic Perspective on Voting Results


Robert R. Prechter Jr.


Socionomics Institute

Deepak Goel


Socionomics Institute

Wayne D. Parker


Emory University School of Medicine; Socionomics Foundation

Matthew Lampert


University of Cambridge; Socionomics Institute

September 27, 2012

SAGE Open, 2012

Abstract:     
We analyze all U.S. presidential election bids. We find a positive, significant relationship between the incumbent’s vote margin and the prior net percentage change in the stock market. This relationship does not extend to the incumbent’s party when the incumbent does not run for re-election. We find no significant relationships between the incumbent’s vote margin and inflation or unemployment. GDP is a significant predictor of the incumbent’s popular vote margin in simple regression but is rendered insignificant when combined with the stock market in multiple regression. Hypotheses of economic voting fail to account for the findings. The results are consistent with socionomic voting theory, which includes the hypotheses that (1) social mood as reflected by the stock market is a more powerful regulator of re-election outcomes than economic variables such as GDP, inflation and unemployment and (2) voters unconsciously credit or blame the leader for their mood.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 42

Keywords: economic voting, presidential elections, incumbent, social mood, socionomics

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Date posted: January 19, 2012 ; Last revised: November 6, 2012

Suggested Citation

Prechter, Robert R. and Goel, Deepak and Parker, Wayne D. and Lampert, Matthew, Social Mood, Stock Market Performance and U.S. Presidential Elections: A Socionomic Perspective on Voting Results (September 27, 2012). SAGE Open, 2012. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1987160 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1987160

Contact Information

Robert R. Prechter Jr.
Socionomics Institute ( email )
PO Box 1618
Gainesville, GA 30503
United States
HOME PAGE: http://www.socionomics.net/
Deepak Goel
Socionomics Institute ( email )
PO Box 1618
Gainesville, GA 30503
United States
HOME PAGE: http://www.socionomics.net
Wayne D. Parker
Emory University School of Medicine ( email )
United States
Socionomics Foundation ( email )
200 Main Street, Suite 300
Gainesville, GA 30501
United States
Matthew Lampert (Contact Author)
University of Cambridge ( email )
Churchill College
Cambridge, CB3 0DS
United Kingdom
Socionomics Institute ( email )
PO Box 1618
Gainesville, GA 30503
United States
HOME PAGE: http://www.socionomics.net
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