Citations (2)



Analyst Forecast Consistency

Gilles Hilary


Charles Hsu

Hong Kong University of Science & Technology

January 20, 2012

Journal of Finance, Forthcoming

We show empirically that analysts who display more consistent forecast errors have greater ability to affect prices, and that this effect is larger than that of stated accuracy. These results lead to three implications. First, consistent analysts are less likely to be demoted and are more likely to be nominated All Star analysts. Second, analysts strategically deliver downward-biased forecasts to increase their consistency (if at the expense of stated accuracy). Finally, the benefits of consistency and of “lowballing” (accuracy) are increasing (decreasing) in institutional investors’ presence.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 44

Keywords: analyst forecast, consistency, Reg FD

JEL Classification: M4, G2

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Date posted: January 20, 2012  

Suggested Citation

Hilary, Gilles and Hsu, Charles, Analyst Forecast Consistency (January 20, 2012). Journal of Finance, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1988919

Contact Information

Gilles Hilary (Contact Author)
INSEAD ( email )
Charles Hsu
Hong Kong University of Science & Technology ( email )
Hong Kong
Hong Kong
852-2358-7568 (Phone)
852-2358-1693 (Fax)
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