Extreme Value Theory for Finance: A Survey
Bank of Italy
February 3, 2012
Bank of Italy Occasional Paper No. 99
Extreme value theory is concerned with the study of the asymptotical distribution of extreme events, that is to say events which are rare in frequency and huge with respect to the majority of observations. Statistical methods derived from this theory have been increasingly employed in finance, especially in the context of risk measurement. The aim of the present study is twofold. The first part delivers a critical review of the theoretical underpinnings of extreme value theory. The second part provides a survey of some major applications of extreme value theory to finance, namely its use to test different distributional assumptions for the data, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall calculations, asset allocation under safety-first type constraints and the study of contagion and dependence across markets under stress conditions.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 74
Keywords: extreme value theory, risk management, fat-tailed distributions, Value-at-Risk, systemic risk, asset allocation
JEL Classification: C10, C16, G10, G20, G21working papers series
Date posted: February 5, 2012
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