Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=2005009
 
 

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A Disaggregated Framework for the Analysis of Structural Developments in Public Finances


Jana Kremer


Deutsche Bundesbank

Cláudia Rodrigues Braz


Bank of Portugal

Teunis Brosens


De Nederlandsche Bank (Dutch Central Bank)

Geert Langenus


National Bank of Belgium

Sandro Momigliano


Bank of Italy

Mikko Spolander


Bank of Finland

February 14, 2012


Abstract:     
In this paper, we present a disaggregated framework for the analysis of past and projected structural developments in the most relevant revenue and expenditure categories and the fiscal balance. The framework, in particular, distinguishes between the effects of discretionary fiscal policy and of macroeconomic and other developments and is sufficiently standardised to be used in multi-country studies. Here, it is applied to Belgium, Finland, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal over the period 1998 to 2004. During this period the structural primary balance ratio clearly worsened in all countries except Finland. In Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands, both revenue and expenditure contributed to the deterioration of the structural primary balance. In Germany the large deterioration in revenue was partially offset by the decline in the structural primary expenditure ratio, while the opposite was true for Portugal. The analysis highlights the various factors that contributed to these developments.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 36

Keywords: structural budget balance, fiscal forecasting and monitoring, fiscal indicators

JEL Classification: H20, H50, H60, E69

working papers series


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Date posted: February 16, 2012  

Suggested Citation

Kremer, Jana and Rodrigues Braz, Cláudia and Brosens, Teunis and Langenus, Geert and Momigliano, Sandro and Spolander, Mikko, A Disaggregated Framework for the Analysis of Structural Developments in Public Finances (February 14, 2012). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2005009 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2005009

Contact Information

Jana Kremer (Contact Author)
Deutsche Bundesbank ( email )
Wilhelm-Epstein-Str. 14
D-60431 Frankfurt/Main
Germany
Cláudia Rodrigues Braz
Bank of Portugal ( email )
Rua Francisco Ribeiro, 2
Lisbon, 1150-165
Portugal
Teunis Brosens
De Nederlandsche Bank (Dutch Central Bank) ( email )
PO Box 98
1000 AB Amsterdam
Amsterdam, 1000 AB
Netherlands
+31 20 524 2506 (Fax)
HOME PAGE: http://www.dnb.nl
Geert Langenus
National Bank of Belgium ( email )
Brussels, B-1000
Belgium
Sandro Momigliano
Bank of Italy ( email )
Via Nazionale 91
Rome, 00184
Italy
Mikko Spolander
Bank of Finland ( email )
P.O. Box 160
FIN-00101 Helsinki
Finland
+358 9 1831 (Phone)
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