Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=2011156
 


 



Does a Presidential Candidate’s Campaign Affect the Election Outcome?


Richard Nadeau


University of Montreal

2012

FORESIGHT: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Winter 2012

Abstract:     
Prevailing wisdom has it that campaigns don’t matter when it comes to forecasting U.S. presidential elections; the incorporation of direct campaign measures into statistical forecasting models does not appear to improve forecasting accuracy. Richard Nadeau and Michael Lewis-Beck now challenge that assertion, based on consideration of the quality and clarity of a candidate’s campaign. They find small but statistically significant campaign effects that can affect the outcome in an otherwise close election.

JEL Classification: COO, C2

Accepted Paper Series


Not Available For Download

Date posted: February 26, 2012  

Suggested Citation

Nadeau, Richard, Does a Presidential Candidate’s Campaign Affect the Election Outcome? (2012). FORESIGHT: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Winter 2012. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2011156

Contact Information

Richard Nadeau (Contact Author)
University of Montreal ( email )
Department of Political Science
C.P. 6128 succursale Centre-ville
Montreal, Quebec H3C 3J7
Canada
Feedback to SSRN


Paper statistics
Abstract Views: 298

© 2014 Social Science Electronic Publishing, Inc. All Rights Reserved.  FAQ   Terms of Use   Privacy Policy   Copyright   Contact Us
This page was processed by apollo6 in 0.313 seconds