Does a Presidential Candidate’s Campaign Affect the Election Outcome?

Abstract:     
Prevailing wisdom has it that campaigns don’t matter when it comes to forecasting U.S. presidential elections; the incorporation of direct campaign measures into statistical forecasting models does not appear to improve forecasting accuracy. Richard Nadeau and Michael Lewis-Beck now challenge that assertion, based on consideration of the quality and clarity of a candidate’s campaign. They find small but statistically significant campaign effects that can affect the outcome in an otherwise close election.

JEL Classification: COO, C2

Accepted Paper Series