Macro to Micro: Country Exposures, Firm Fundamentals and Stock Returns
University of Texas at Dallas
Scott A. Richardson
London Business School; AQR Capital Management, LLC
A. Irem Tuna
London Business School
April 24, 2014
Journal of Accounting & Economics (JAE), Forthcoming
We outline a systematic approach to incorporate macroeconomic information into firm level forecasting from the perspective of an equity investor. Using a global sample of 198,315 firm-years over the 1998-2010 time period, we find that combining firm level exposures to countries (via geographic segment data) with forecasts of country level performance, is able to generate superior forecasts for firm fundamentals. This result is particularly evident for purely domestic firms. We further find that this forecasting benefit is associated with future excess stock returns. These relations are stronger after periods of higher dispersion in expected country level performance.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 55
Keywords: macroeconomic exposures, earnings, stock returns, geographic segments, Consensus Economics
JEL Classification: G12, G14, M41
Date posted: March 7, 2012 ; Last revised: April 24, 2014
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