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Do Political Institutions Yield Multiple Growth Regimes?David CoyneFederal Reserve Bank of Boston Chih Ming TanUniversity of North Dakota; Clark University - Department of Economics May 14, 2012 Economics Bulletin, Vol. 32 No. 2 pp. 1442-1454 Abstract: We investigate the effects of political institutions on economic growth. We specifically explore this relationship while controlling for heterogeneity and model uncertainty. We use threshold regression (Hansen (2000)) to search for possible nonlinearities and/or interaction effects with respect to political institutions. We also implement a novel approach to account for theory uncertainty by applying Bayesian model averaging in the threshold regression context. We Â…find that less democratic countries, specifically those with less competitiveness in executive recruitment, follow a different growth process than those with higher competitiveness.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 13 Keywords: Economic Growth, Institutions, Threshold Regression, Regression Trees, Bayesian Model Averaging JEL Classification: C21, C51, O43, O47 Accepted Paper SeriesDate posted: March 9, 2012 ; Last revised: July 4, 2012Suggested CitationContact Information
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