Do Political Institutions Yield Multiple Growth Regimes?
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Chih Ming Tan
University of North Dakota
May 14, 2012
Economics Bulletin, Vol. 32 No. 2 pp. 1442-1454
We investigate the effects of political institutions on economic growth. We specifically explore this relationship while controlling for heterogeneity and model uncertainty. We use threshold regression (Hansen (2000)) to search for possible nonlinearities and/or interaction effects with respect to political institutions. We also implement a novel approach to account for theory uncertainty by applying Bayesian model averaging in the threshold regression context. We find that less democratic countries, specifically those with less competitiveness in executive recruitment, follow a different growth process than those with higher competitiveness.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 13
Keywords: Economic Growth, Institutions, Threshold Regression, Regression Trees, Bayesian Model Averaging
JEL Classification: C21, C51, O43, O47Accepted Paper Series
Date posted: March 9, 2012 ; Last revised: July 4, 2012
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