Proactive Policing and Robbery Rates Across U.S. Cities

Abstract:     
In recent years, criminologists, as well as journalists, have devoted considerable attention to the potential deterrent effect of what is sometimes referred to as “proactive” policing. This style of policing entails the vigorous enforcement of laws against relatively minor or frequent offenses in order to prevent more serious crime. The current study examines the effect of proactive policing on robbery rates for a sample of large U.S. cities using an innovative measure developed by Sampson and Cohen (1988). We replicate their cross-sectional analyses using data from 2000-2003, a period during which proactive policing is likely to have become more common than the period of the original study — the early 1980s. We also extend their cross-sectional analyses by estimating a more comprehensive regression model that incorporates additional predictors thought to affect robbery. Finally, we estimate dynamic models to address the vexing issue of endogeneity. The results suggest that the cross-sectional relationship between proactive policing and robbery rates is quite robust. Further support for a relationship between proactive policing and robbery is found in dynamic models that account for endogeneity.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 41

Keywords: proactive policing, violent crime, deterrence, endogeneity

Accepted Paper Series