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What Makes Voters Turn Out: The Effects of Polls and BeliefsMarina AgranovCalifornia Institute of Technology Jacob K. GoereeUniversity of Zurich Julian Romeroaffiliation not provided to SSRN Leeat YarivCalifornia Institute of Technology - Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences March 22, 2012 University of Zurich Department of Economics Working Paper No. 67 Abstract: We use laboratory experiments to test for one of the foundations of the rational voter paradigm - that voters respond to probabilities of being pivotal. We exploit a setup that entails stark theoretical effects of information concerning the preference distribution (as revealed through polls) on costly participation decisions. The data reveal several insights. First, voting propensity increases systematically with subjects' predictions of their preferred alternative's advantage. Consequently, pre-election polls do not exhibit the detrimental welfare effects that extant theoretical work predicts. They lead to more participation by the expected majority and generate more landslide elections. Finally, we investigate subjects' behavior in polls and identify when Bandwagon and Underdog Effects arise.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 33 Keywords: Collective Choice, Polls, Strategic Voting JEL Classification: C92, D02, D72 working papers seriesDate posted: March 28, 2012Suggested CitationContact Information
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