Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=2037695
 


 



Managing Incremental Commitment: An Analytic Challenge


Rex Brown


George Mason University - School of Public Policy

April 10, 2012

GMU School of Public Policy Research Paper No. 2012-11

Abstract:     
Decision making often consists of incremental moves toward some selected objective, which can be reconsidered as knowledge emerges - as when an individual chooses a career, or a commander picks a military course of action. Analyzing these decision strategy options as if they were single integral commitments can distort comparison. However, rigorous normative treatment of complex act-event sequences is often impractical.

Alternative analytic aids to managing incremental commitment usefully are explored, e.g; evaluation of integral options adjusted for flexibility, successive decision analyses of incremental options, simplified information gathering decision trees, feedback to decider on evolving operation success, rehearsing deciders on potential recognition-primed sequences.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 29

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Date posted: April 10, 2012 ; Last revised: April 25, 2012

Suggested Citation

Brown, Rex, Managing Incremental Commitment: An Analytic Challenge (April 10, 2012). GMU School of Public Policy Research Paper No. 2012-11. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2037695 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2037695

Contact Information

Rex V. Brown (Contact Author)
George Mason University - School of Public Policy ( email )
2018 Lakebreeze Way
Reston, VA 20191
United States
7036202443 (Phone)
7036202839 (Fax)
HOME PAGE: http://mason.gmu.edu/~rbrown
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