Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=2043056
 
 

References (24)



 


 



Tracking the Future on the Web: Construction of Leading Indicators Using Internet Searches


Concha Artola


Bank of Spain - Servicio de Estudios

Enrique Galán Sr.


affiliation not provided to SSRN

April 20, 2012

Banco de Espana Occasional Paper No. 1203

Abstract:     
This paper reviews some of the applications that use the vast swathes of information provided by Internet user searches for economic analysis and forecasting. This enormous volume of information, available in real time, can be handled by analysts thanks to statistical tools such as “Google Insights for Search”, which allow trends in different areas of interest to be classified and evaluated. Previous work focused predominantly on the labour market, on the housing market, on retail sales and on consumer confidence. This paper presents a very specific application for the Spanish economy: British tourist inflows to Spain (the Spanish tourist industry's main customers). The improvement in the forecasting provided by the short-term models that include the G-indicator depends on the benchmark model. This does, however, allow an adjusted indicator of the inflow of British tourists to be obtained with a lead of almost one month.

This is but an initial step in the use of on-line searches for constructing leading indicators of economic activity. Other applications to be explored are car sales, consumer confidence and house purchases. The chief characteristic of these procedures is that, with time and the continuous growth of Internet use, results can only improve in the future. It should nonetheless be recalled that the construction of these G-indicators requires caution so as to avoid mistakes arising, inter alia, from the different use of language in different countries. Not taking due caution and blindly confiding in these indicators may lead to erroneous results being obtained.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 29

Keywords: Google, forecasting, nowcasting, tourism

JEL Classification: C22, C53, C82, E17, E37, L83

working papers series


Download This Paper

Date posted: April 22, 2012  

Suggested Citation

Artola, Concha and Galán, Enrique, Tracking the Future on the Web: Construction of Leading Indicators Using Internet Searches (April 20, 2012). Banco de Espana Occasional Paper No. 1203. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2043056 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2043056

Contact Information

Concha Artola (Contact Author)
Bank of Spain - Servicio de Estudios ( email )
28027 Madrid
Spain
(34) 91-338-5127 (Phone)
(34) 91-338-6041 (Fax)
Enrique Galán Sr.
affiliation not provided to SSRN
Feedback to SSRN


Paper statistics
Abstract Views: 304
Downloads: 37
References:  24

© 2014 Social Science Electronic Publishing, Inc. All Rights Reserved.  FAQ   Terms of Use   Privacy Policy   Copyright   Contact Us
This page was processed by apollo8 in 0.219 seconds