Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=2046091
 


 



A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Uncertainty on Import- and/or Export-Led Growth: The Experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers


Renuka Mahadevan


University of Queensland - School of Economics

Sandy Suardi


La Trobe University

August 1, 2007

Japan and the World Economy, Vol. 20, No. 2, 2008

Abstract:     
Increasing integration of the Asian Tigers with the world economy through trade has exposed their income and trade to greater uncertainty and volatility. This paper models uncertainty in trade and income and re-examines the stability of the trade-growth nexus for Japan and the Asian Tigers in a dynamic framework. We find that in a volatile environment Japan's GDP growth is only import-led while Hong Kong's GDP growth is both export and import growth-led. On the other hand, incorporating uncertainty breaks the causal link between Korea's GDP growth and trade but it does not affect Taiwan's mutually causative relationship between GDP growth, with exports and imports. Lastly, the varied qualitative and quantitative impact of volatility in imports and exports on income growth among the Asian Tigers provides further thought for policy making.

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Date posted: April 28, 2012  

Suggested Citation

Mahadevan, Renuka and Suardi, Sandy, A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Uncertainty on Import- and/or Export-Led Growth: The Experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers (August 1, 2007). Japan and the World Economy, Vol. 20, No. 2, 2008. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2046091

Contact Information

Renuka Mahadevan
University of Queensland - School of Economics ( email )
St Lucia
Brisbane, Queensland 4072
Australia
Sandy Suardi (Contact Author)
La Trobe University ( email )
School of Economics
Bundoora, VIC 3086
Australia
HOME PAGE: http://www.latrobe.edu.au/economics/about/staff/profile?uname=ssuardi
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