Kernel Regularized Least Squares: Reducing Misspecification Bias with a Flexible and Interpretable Machine Learning Approach
Stanford University - Department of Political Science; Stanford Graduate School of Business
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
Political Analysis (2013 Forthcoming)
We propose the use of Kernel Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) for social science modeling and inference problems. KRLS borrows from machine learning methods designed to solve regression and classification problems without relying on linearity or additivity assumptions. The method constructs a flexible hypothesis space that uses kernels as radial basis functions and finds the best-fitting surface in this space by minimizing a complexity-penalized least squares problem. We argue that the method is well-suited for social science inquiry because it avoids strong parametric assumptions, yet allows interpretation in ways analogous to generalized linear models while also permitting more complex interpretation to examine non-linearities, interactions, and heterogeneous effects. We also extend the method in several directions to make it more effective for social inquiry, by (1) deriving estimators for the pointwise marginal effects and their variances, (2) establishing unbiasedness, consistency, and asymptotic normality of the KRLS estimator under fairly general conditions, (3) proposing a simple automated rule for choosing the kernel bandwidth, and (4) providing companion software. We illustrate the use of the method through simulations and empirical examples.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 42
Keywords: regression, classification, machine learning, prediction
JEL Classification: C14, C21
Date posted: April 25, 2012 ; Last revised: September 26, 2013
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