Modelling Principle Components Analysis of the Sudanese Macroeconomic Variables

Abstract:     
The current paper experiments with the conception and analytical model of principle components. The analysis utilizes data of Sudan to test the model fitness and data suitability. All the country's economic sectors are used in the analysis which also integrates high, medium and low income strata in the model. Obtained results reveal the model viability whereas coefficients of determination R2 were high, Variance Frequency inflation (VIF) results were all below the value of 10 and beta coefficients were at 5 and 1% significance levels. A specific indicator was improvised to estimate Consumer Prices Index (CPI) that was used in the estimations. A prime result is that even with the dominance of the oil industry in the county's economy, the agricultural sector still played a main affecting economic sector. Thus its continuous negligence can perceivably result in economic setback.

Note: Downloadable document is in Sudanese.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 29

Keywords: Sudan, Economic Perfomance, Macroeconomic Variables, Principle components Analysis, Social Status, Income Strata, Economic Sectors Output

JEL Classification: A00, A10, A11, A12, A13, A14, A19, B00, B40, B41, B49, D3, D30, D31, D32, D33, D39, E00, E4, E10, E4

working papers series