Early Season NFL Over/Under Bias
Justin L. Davis
University of West Florida
April 27, 2012
Popular wisdom regarding athletics is that offenses are at a relative disadvantage in the early portion of seasons. We present evidence that this anecdotal belief holds true over the 2000-2010 National Football League (NFL) seasons. This is reflected in lower offensive yardage, fewer first downs, and fewer points scored. While total points scored are significantly lower in Week 1 of NFL seasons, bookmakers fail to reduce the total lines posted on these games. We find a strategy betting under total lines of all Week 1 games over the 2000-2010 NFL season yields a statistically significant profit of 13.6% per game.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 15
Keywords: Over/Under, Totals, NFL, Sports Betting, Behavioral, Holdover Bias, Market Efficiency
JEL Classification: D82, G12, L8, D81working papers series
Date posted: April 29, 2012
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