Early Phase Success and Long Run Failure of Economic Sanctions: With an Application to Iran
Sajjad Faraji Dizaji
Tarbiat Modares University
Peter A. G. Van Bergeijk
Erasmus University - Institute of Social Studies (ISS); CERES, Research School for Resource Studies for Development
June 2, 2012
Institute of Social Studies Working Paper No. 544
We develop a model of the dynamics of economic sanctions in conjunction with the response of the sanction target. We apply this model to the case of the EU and US boycott of Iranian oil. Our VAR model finds significant impacts of sanctions both on key economic variables and on the political system. These effects, however, are limited in time and occur in the first two to four years of the sanction episode only because adjustment of economic structures mitigates the economic and political impact of the sanctions.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 44
Keywords: Vector autoregressive model, sanctions, Iran
JEL Classification: F11, F51working papers series
Date posted: June 3, 2012 ; Last revised: June 4, 2012
© 2013 Social Science Electronic Publishing, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
This page was processed by apollo4 in 0.344 seconds