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Early Phase Success and Long Run Failure of Economic Sanctions: With an Application to IranSajjad Faraji DizajiTarbiat Modares University Peter A. G. Van BergeijkErasmus University - Institute of Social Studies (ISS); CERES, Research School for Resource Studies for Development June 2, 2012 Institute of Social Studies Working Paper No. 544 Abstract: We develop a model of the dynamics of economic sanctions in conjunction with the response of the sanction target. We apply this model to the case of the EU and US boycott of Iranian oil. Our VAR model finds significant impacts of sanctions both on key economic variables and on the political system. These effects, however, are limited in time and occur in the first two to four years of the sanction episode only because adjustment of economic structures mitigates the economic and political impact of the sanctions.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 44 Keywords: Vector autoregressive model, sanctions, Iran JEL Classification: F11, F51 working papers seriesDate posted: June 3, 2012 ; Last revised: June 4, 2012Suggested CitationContact Information
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