Abstract

http://ssrn.com/abstract=2076627
 
 

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Zoning on the Urban Fringe: Results from a New Approach to Modeling Land and Housing Markets


Virginia McConnell


University of Maryland; Resources for the Future

Margaret Walls


Resources for the Future - Quality of the Environment Division

Elena Safirova


Resources for the Future

Nicholas Magliocca


Department of Geography and Environmental Systems

May 25, 2012

Resources for the Future Discussion Paper No. 11-32

Abstract:     
This paper uses an economic agent-based model of land use in a hypothetical urban fringe community to examine the effects of large-lot zoning on land conversion, land prices, and the spatial configuration and density of new development. The model incorporates the actions of heterogeneous housing consumers, developers, and farmer/landowners who make economic decisions in land and housing markets. The model allows for population growth and simulates the evolution of land use patterns and prices over a 20-year time period. Zoning regulations in the form of minimum lot size restrictions imposed in an outlying area are shown to have effects that vary with the stringency of the regulations: 2-acre minimum lot sizes have little effect on the spatial patterns of development, but they do increase land and housing prices and result in higher incomes in the region; 5-acre minimum lot sizes push development toward the city center, leaving agricultural land in the zoned region undeveloped until quite late in the simulation period. While house prices are higher with 5-acre zoning, land prices in the zoned region fall, highlighting the countervailing influences of lot size restrictions on land prices. The new modeling approach allows for the tracking of the transitional dynamics of development, both over space and time as the urban area grows.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 40

Keywords: land use, agent-based model, zoning, urban sprawl

JEL Classification: R11, R12, R14, R38

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Date posted: June 5, 2012 ; Last revised: June 18, 2012

Suggested Citation

McConnell, Virginia and Walls, Margaret and Safirova, Elena and Magliocca, Nicholas, Zoning on the Urban Fringe: Results from a New Approach to Modeling Land and Housing Markets (May 25, 2012). Resources for the Future Discussion Paper No. 11-32. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2076627 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2076627

Contact Information

Virginia McConnell
University of Maryland ( email )
College Park, MD 20742
United States
Resources for the Future
1616 P Street, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States
Margaret Walls (Contact Author)
Resources for the Future - Quality of the Environment Division ( email )
1616 P Street, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States
Elena Safirova
Resources for the Future ( email )
1616 P Street, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States
Nicholas Magliocca
Department of Geography and Environmental Systems ( email )
211 Sondhiem Hall
1000 Hilltop Circle
Baltimore, MD 21250
United States
HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/nicholasrmagliocca/
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