Estimating a Structural Model of Herd Behavior in Financial Markets
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
University College London - Centre for Economic Learning and Social Evolution (ELSE)
May 1, 2012
FRB of New York Staff Report No. 561
We develop a new methodology for estimating the importance of herd behavior in financial markets. Specifically, we build a structural model of informational herding that can be estimated with financial transaction data. In the model, rational herding arises because of information-event uncertainty. We estimate the model using 1995 stock market data for Ashland Inc., a company listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Herding occurs often and is particularly pervasive on certain days. In an information-event day, on average, 2 percent (4 percent) of informed traders herd-buy (sell). In 7 percent (11 percent) of information-event days, the proportion of informed traders who herd-buy (sell) is greater than 10 percent. Herding causes important informational inefficiencies, amounting, on average, to 4 percent of the asset's expected value.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 40
Keywords: herd behavior, market microstructure, structural estimation
JEL Classification: G14, D82, C13
Date posted: June 9, 2012
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