A Model of the Euro-Area Yield Curve with Discrete Policy Rates

Abstract:     
In this paper, I investigate the effects of the ECB's monetary policy on the yield curve, and make contributions at three levels. First, I propose a novel and tractable model of the yield curve that belongs to the class of affine term-structure models. Importantly, this model is consistent with positive policy rates, making it appropriate to deal with the zero-lower-bound restriction. The short end of the yield curve is explicitly influenced by the central-bank policy rate, the latter being a multiple of 25 basis points. Second, after having estimated the model using daily euro-area data covering the last thirteen years, I explore the behavior of risk premia at the short end of the yield curve. Third, I exploit the model in order to assess the potential impact of a commitment of the central bank to keep its policy rate at a very low level for a deterministic period of time.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 45

Keywords: overnight index swaps, affine term-structure models, regime switching, non-standard monetary-policy measures

JEL Classification: E43, E44, E47, E52, G12

working papers series