Modelling Speed Limit Offenders in Mauritius Using Symmetric and Asymmetric GARCH Models: From Financial Modeling to Traffic Modeling

Abstract:     
Many countries have adopted important policies in view of curbing the number of injuries/fatal road accidents with the most important being speed limit enforcement. In that respect, Mauritius has recently embarked on a strategy of using cameras in view of detecting violations to speed limits. However, the empirical literature on speed limit offenders is still very poor in terms of modelling. In essence, this paper constitutes the very first study that provides sound econometric modelling for speed limit offenders. Findings suggest that vanilla GARCH can be used to model the number of speed limit offenders. Above all, leverage effects are also noted, clearly showing the importance of the type of traffic flow which underpins the non-compliance/breach to speed limits. Furthermore, results show the presence of strong weekend effects as confirmed by the dummy variable. The research is expected to provide a momentum in the use of GARCH models for traffic modelling not only for Mauritius but also for other countries in the world.

Keywords: Speed Limit Enforcement, GARCH models, Traffic modelling

JEL Classification: R41, C32

Accepted Paper Series