The Reaction of Stock Markets in the BRIC Countries to Economic Policy Uncertainty in the United States

Abstract:     
This study examines if economic policy uncertainty in the U.S. has any effect on the returns on stock markets in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries. The current study also investigates how stock market returns in the four countries respond to the U.S. economic policy uncertainty shock. The Granger causality tests are also performed to determine if economic policy uncertainty cause the returns on the four stock markets. The results show that the U.S. economic policy uncertainty negatively affect stock market returns in Brazil, India and Russia; this negative effect is statistically significant at the 10% level for Brazil and at the 1% level for India and Russia. Stock returns in China are also negatively affected by the U.S. economic policy uncertainty; however, this effect is not statistically significant. The negative effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock market returns becomes statistically insignificant for Brazil and India controlling for the S&P 500 returns; the coefficient for Russia is still statistically significant but at the 10% level.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 15

Keywords: economic policy uncertainty, stock market performance, USA, BRIC

JEL Classification: E60, G12, G14

working papers series